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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still